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Red128
181640.5
250838.3
247047.8
Blue123
361013.7
417455.9
369131.8
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14510350200250128123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
+1Teleop
+1Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
3Leave9
4Coral scored#3
19Coral points14
22Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +2
18Coral scored#18
66Coral points66
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
12Processor points6
8Net points12
20Algae points18
86Total teleop84
Reef
6L4#8
7L3#5
5L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#25
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
4Foul points0
128Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.80.7
47.046.3
Auto6.2
Teleop36.5
End5.1
blue by 8.0
55.91.3
50.451.7
Auto13.3
Teleop33.6
End9.0
Second
1816
#23
40.50.7
39.839.0
Auto6.1
Teleop25.6
End8.8
red by 8.7
3691
#26
31.81.3
30.631.8
Auto4.0
Teleop24.6
End3.2
Third
2508
#10
38.30.7
37.236.4
Auto12.7
Teleop22.2
End3.4
red by 24.6
3610
#47
13.71.7
12.013.7
Auto4.1
Teleop6.9
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned76%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
17%Coral oddsMissed19%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsEarned