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Red36
711716.3
51478.0
297814.4
Blue57
807713.5
549226.5
745216.4
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions496402040801001203657

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+21
Endgame+33
Fouls+21
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave9
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +18
4Coral scored#6
14Coral points22
0Processor algae#1
0Net algae#1
0Processor points6
0Net points4
0Algae points10
14Total teleop32
Reef
2L4#2
1L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#8
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +21
12Foul points0
36Total score57

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7117
#22
16.31.6
12.610.9
Auto4.3
Teleop7.6
End4.3
blue by 10.2
5492
#16
26.50.8
19.820.6
Auto3.1
Teleop18.2
End5.2
Second
2978
#15
14.41.6
15.914.3
Auto3.4
Teleop8.1
End2.8
blue by 2.1
7452
#33
16.40.8
12.012.9
Auto2.2
Teleop13.5
End0.8
Third
5147
#40
8.01.6
10.38.6
Auto2.1
Teleop4.5
End1.4
blue by 5.5
8077
#18
13.50.8
17.718.5
Auto2.9
Teleop7.6
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
31%Auto oddsMissed26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsEarned46%Barge oddsEarned