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Red43
297814.4
120817.7
493118.4
Blue39
558311.7
93119.4
306720.6
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions60593040507080904339

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+8
+4Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave3
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +11
4Coral scored#5
14Coral points19
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
18Total teleop29
Reef
2L4#3
1L3#1
0L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#8
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points0
43Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4931
#17
18.40.7
10.29.5
Auto2.5
Teleop8.5
End7.4
blue by 2.2
3067
#35
20.61.6
19.117.5
Auto2.8
Teleop16.0
End1.7
Second
1208
#25
17.70.7
23.422.7
Auto2.4
Teleop11.4
End4.0
blue by 1.7
931
#37
19.41.6
21.119.5
Auto4.0
Teleop13.0
End2.4
Third
2978
#15
14.40.7
12.712.0
Auto3.4
Teleop8.1
End2.8
red by 2.7
5583
#43
11.71.6
10.69.0
Auto1.9
Teleop7.5
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
58%Auto oddsMissed11%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
58%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed