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Red113
871910.5
450060.0
517616.5
Blue77
588916.6
250635.9
93119.4
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions93712040608010012014016011377

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+46Teleop
+36Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave6
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points3
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +29
11Coral scored#12
39Coral points44
4Processor algae#1
5Net algae#1
24Processor points6
20Net points4
44Algae points10
83Total teleop54
Reef
3L4#4
5L3#3
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +36
0Foul points0
113Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.02.0
54.556.5
Auto15.6
Teleop38.1
End6.3
red by 24.1
2506
#24
35.90.8
31.732.5
Auto2.9
Teleop26.1
End7.0
Second
5176
#30
16.53.2
14.517.6
Auto4.1
Teleop12.0
End0.3
blue by 2.9
931
#37
19.40.8
20.621.3
Auto4.0
Teleop13.0
End2.4
Third
8719
#44
10.53.2
8.111.3
Auto1.7
Teleop7.2
End1.6
blue by 6.1
5889
#36
16.60.8
11.312.1
Auto3.0
Teleop9.4
End4.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsEarned27%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
19%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed33%Barge oddsEarned