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Red115
493118.4
593435.6
549226.5
Blue87
942824.4
432931.6
117815.4
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions889240608010012014016011587

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+10Teleop
+16Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave9
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +7
12Coral scored#15
43Coral points54
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
12Processor points6
20Net points8
32Algae points14
75Total teleop68
Reef
5L4#7
5L3#4
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
20Game pieces#18
BargeRed +6
16Cage & park10
16Total endgame10
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
12Foul points0
115Total score87

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.62.1
32.734.8
Auto5.6
Teleop22.8
End7.2
red by 3.9
4329
#31
31.61.1
32.033.1
Auto4.0
Teleop27.0
End0.7
Second
5492
#16
26.52.1
23.925.9
Auto3.1
Teleop18.2
End5.2
red by 2.2
9428
#32
24.41.1
23.424.5
Auto4.8
Teleop17.3
End2.2
Third
4931
#17
18.42.1
17.019.1
Auto2.5
Teleop8.5
End7.4
red by 3.0
1178
#42
15.41.1
14.315.4
Auto2.9
Teleop9.1
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed