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Red236
331480.3
1159.8
260781.4
Blue229
589584.9
314260.3
34180.3
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions223238150200250300236229

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+3
+7Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave3
10Coral scored#11
48Coral points55
54Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +1
29Coral scored#30
104Coral points107
3Processor algae#3
6Net algae#5
18Processor points18
24Net points20
42Algae points38
146Total teleop145
Reef
16L4#13
8L3#16
11L2#7
4L1 · trough#5
48Game pieces#49
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +7
0Foul points0
236Total score229

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.40.4
80.380.7
Auto19.2
Teleop50.4
End11.7
blue by 3.5
84.90.0
85.685.6
Auto25.3
Teleop51.0
End8.6
Second
3314
#15
80.30.4
79.279.6
Auto19.8
Teleop47.9
End12.6
Level
341
#1
80.30.0
81.181.1
Auto13.6
Teleop56.9
End9.8
Third
11
#26
59.80.4
58.759.1
Auto11.6
Teleop40.2
End8.0
blue by 0.5
3142
#24
60.30.0
61.061.1
Auto13.2
Teleop38.3
End8.7