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Red196
22348.4
437346.9
164052.5
Blue159
314260.3
108951.3
22250.5
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions149175100200250196159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+35Teleop
+35Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave6
7Coral scored#5
34Coral points24
37Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +28
26Coral scored#21
95Coral points75
4Processor algae#2
6Net algae#7
24Processor points12
24Net points28
48Algae points40
143Total teleop115
Reef
14L4#8
7L3#9
7L2#6
5L1 · trough#3
43Game pieces#35
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +37
2Foul points0
196Total score159

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1640
#11
52.53.0
50.153.1
Auto11.8
Teleop33.8
End6.9
blue by 7.8
3142
#24
60.30.9
60.059.2
Auto13.2
Teleop38.3
End8.7
Second
223
#52
48.43.0
45.248.1
Auto8.5
Teleop37.2
End2.7
blue by 2.9
1089
#58
51.30.9
51.150.3
Auto15.5
Teleop33.3
End2.5
Third
4373
#18
46.93.0
43.146.1
Auto11.4
Teleop30.1
End5.5
blue by 3.7
222
#42
50.50.9
49.448.6
Auto6.3
Teleop36.9
End7.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsMissed97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
45%Coral oddsEarned80%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned88%Barge oddsEarned