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Red229
255446.8
518156.0
121865.9
Blue191
171245.7
331480.3
245824.8
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19217650100150250300350229191

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+44Teleop
+32Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
9Leave9
10Coral scored#4
49Coral points21
58Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +16
26Coral scored#29
95Coral points103
2Processor algae#2
11Net algae#5
12Processor points12
44Net points20
56Algae points32
151Total teleop135
Reef
17L4#17
9L3#6
5L2#4
5L1 · trough#6
49Game pieces#40
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
6Foul points0
229Total score191

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.92.2
61.363.6
Auto19.7
Teleop37.1
End9.1
blue by 14.4
3314
#15
80.30.9
77.177.9
Auto19.8
Teleop47.9
End12.6
Second
56.02.2
51.854.0
Auto9.0
Teleop42.4
End4.6
red by 10.2
1712
#31
45.70.9
42.843.6
Auto7.1
Teleop31.3
End7.4
Third
2554
#17
46.82.2
44.546.7
Auto13.2
Teleop30.9
End2.8
red by 22.0
2458
#49
24.80.9
22.823.7
Auto4.9
Teleop16.3
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
78%Coral oddsEarned32%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
87%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsEarned