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Red149
249532.5
27249.1
260781.4
Blue119
1015722.5
22250.5
259055.5
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions164123100150200250149119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+24Teleop
+30Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
0Leave0
6Coral scored#2
30Coral points12
30Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +6
16Coral scored#16
59Coral points59
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
18Processor points12
16Net points16
34Algae points28
93Total teleop87
Reef
8L4#7
5L3#6
5L2#2
4L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#24
BargeRed +6
26Cage & park20
26Total endgame20
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
0Foul points0
149Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.40.6
70.469.9
Auto19.2
Teleop50.4
End11.7
red by 25.9
2590
#27
55.50.5
48.948.4
Auto11.6
Teleop35.5
End8.4
Second
272
#14
49.10.6
43.342.7
Auto6.8
Teleop31.1
End11.2
blue by 1.4
222
#42
50.50.5
48.347.7
Auto6.3
Teleop36.9
End7.4
Third
2495
#56
32.50.6
32.632.0
Auto6.2
Teleop24.1
End2.2
red by 10.1
22.50.5
18.818.3
Auto5.9
Teleop12.0
End4.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
32%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned90%Barge oddsEarned