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Red201
260781.4
32147.9
36569.4
Blue158
851364.6
192364.5
599241.4
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18117450100150200250300350201158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
+21Teleop
+41Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousBlue +18
9Leave6
6Coral scored#10
31Coral points52
40Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +39
29Coral scored#21
105Coral points76
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
12Processor points6
16Net points12
28Algae points18
133Total teleop94
Reef
14L4#12
9L3#9
5L2#5
7L1 · trough#5
41Game pieces#35
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
2Foul points0
201Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.41.2
69.971.1
Auto19.2
Teleop50.4
End11.7
red by 16.8
64.61.2
64.863.6
Auto20.5
Teleop35.6
End8.5
Second
365
#4
69.41.2
57.458.7
Auto13.7
Teleop47.2
End8.5
red by 4.9
64.51.2
57.656.4
Auto20.8
Teleop42.0
End1.6
Third
321
#38
47.91.2
41.843.1
Auto15.9
Teleop26.7
End5.3
red by 6.5
5992
#40
41.41.2
41.940.7
Auto6.6
Teleop34.2
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
54%Coral oddsEarned21%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
90%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsMissed