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Qual 392025 FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship
Red183
249532.5
171245.7
314260.3
Blue186
901556.9
70854.9
125754.9
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions158184050100250300350183186

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+17
Endgame+5
Fouls+3
AutonomousBlue +21
9Leave9
1Coral scored#6
7Coral points28
16Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +4
23Coral scored#31
83Coral points113
4Processor algae#1
8Net algae#4
24Processor points6
32Net points16
56Algae points22
139Total teleop135
Reef
6L4#15
8L3#10
7L2#8
3L1 · trough#4
36Game pieces#42
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +3
2Foul points0
183Total score186

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3142
#24
60.31.5
54.8→56.3
Auto13.2
Teleop38.3
End8.7
red by 3.3
9015
#34
56.90.8
50.5→51.3
Auto12.7
Teleop39.2
End5.0
Second
1712
#31
45.71.5
39.8→41.3
Auto7.1
Teleop31.3
End7.4
blue by 9.2
1257
#12
54.90.8
43.0→43.8
Auto11.2
Teleop39.3
End4.4
Third
2495
#56
32.51.5
32.0→33.5
Auto6.2
Teleop24.1
End2.2
blue by 22.4
708
#23
54.90.8
51.0→51.8
Auto11.3
Teleop35.7
End7.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
36%Coral oddsEarned83%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned63%Barge oddsEarned