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Red170
436126.2
27249.1
331480.3
Blue135
7550.1
1159.8
70854.9
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1731760100200300400170135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+3Teleop
+23Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave0
5Coral scored#7
24Coral points37
30Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +10
17Coral scored#14
62Coral points50
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#3
12Processor points18
16Net points12
28Algae points30
90Total teleop80
Reef
10L4#9
4L3#6
5L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#27
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
14Foul points2
170Total score135

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3314
#15
80.30.5
75.375.8
Auto19.8
Teleop47.9
End12.6
red by 20.5
11
#26
59.81.1
51.750.6
Auto11.6
Teleop40.2
End8.0
Second
272
#14
49.10.5
46.246.7
Auto6.8
Teleop31.1
End11.2
blue by 5.8
708
#23
54.91.1
51.750.6
Auto11.3
Teleop35.7
End7.8
Third
4361
#54
26.20.5
27.027.5
Auto7.1
Teleop11.0
End8.2
blue by 23.8
75
#55
50.11.1
46.145.0
Auto13.7
Teleop30.7
End5.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed33%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned97%Barge oddsEarned