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Red190
245824.8
48460.4
192364.5
Blue163
259055.5
70854.9
272035.3
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions149158100200190163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+41Teleop
+31Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
6Leave0
10Coral scored#6
48Coral points30
54Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +17
21Coral scored#18
74Coral points65
3Processor algae#3
7Net algae#5
18Processor points18
28Net points20
46Algae points38
120Total teleop103
Reef
8L4#6
12L3#8
5L2#6
6L1 · trough#4
41Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
0Foul points4
190Total score163

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.53.0
59.762.7
Auto20.8
Teleop42.0
End1.6
red by 9.0
2590
#27
55.50.7
47.648.4
Auto11.6
Teleop35.5
End8.4
Second
484
#22
60.43.0
51.154.1
Auto16.0
Teleop37.9
End6.6
red by 5.5
708
#23
54.90.7
52.052.7
Auto11.3
Teleop35.7
End7.8
Third
2458
#49
24.83.0
22.325.4
Auto4.9
Teleop16.3
End3.6
blue by 10.5
2720
#57
35.30.7
37.438.1
Auto7.1
Teleop21.8
End6.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsEarned37%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
69%Barge oddsEarned98%Barge oddsEarned