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Red195
465338.4
139162.3
34180.3
Blue147
255446.8
32147.9
108951.3
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions204142100250300195147

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+28
+22Teleop
+42Endgame
+48Fouls
AutonomousBlue +28
9Leave3
1Coral scored#8
7Coral points41
16Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +50
26Coral scored#17
95Coral points61
2Processor algae#2
7Net algae#3
12Processor points12
28Net points12
40Algae points24
135Total teleop85
Reef
11L4#6
6L3#9
6L2#5
4L1 · trough#5
36Game pieces#30
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +48
8Foul points2
195Total score147

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
341
#1
80.30.2
80.980.7
Auto13.6
Teleop56.9
End9.8
red by 29.0
1089
#58
51.30.3
52.252.0
Auto15.5
Teleop33.3
End2.5
Second
1391
#19
62.30.2
59.659.4
Auto12.8
Teleop40.9
End8.7
red by 14.4
321
#38
47.90.3
43.943.6
Auto15.9
Teleop26.7
End5.3
Third
4653
#53
38.40.2
41.241.0
Auto11.6
Teleop18.6
End8.2
blue by 8.5
2554
#17
46.80.3
44.143.8
Auto13.2
Teleop30.9
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
74%Coral oddsEarned50%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsEarned