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Red201
331480.3
10239.6
10364.5
Blue161
27249.1
314260.3
437346.9
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions189156100200250201161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+52Teleop
+40Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave0
9Coral scored#5
44Coral points23
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +31
31Coral scored#16
111Coral points56
2Processor algae#4
5Net algae#8
12Processor points24
20Net points32
32Algae points56
143Total teleop112
Reef
20L4#8
10L3#5
5L2#4
5L1 · trough#4
47Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
0Foul points0
201Total score161

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3314
#15
80.31.0
75.476.4
Auto19.8
Teleop47.9
End12.6
red by 20.0
3142
#24
60.30.1
58.958.9
Auto13.2
Teleop38.3
End8.7
Second
103
#13
64.51.0
61.462.4
Auto8.7
Teleop50.4
End5.4
red by 15.4
272
#14
49.10.1
47.747.7
Auto6.8
Teleop31.1
End11.2
Third
102
#43
39.61.0
38.139.1
Auto9.8
Teleop27.3
End2.6
blue by 7.3
4373
#18
46.90.1
44.043.9
Auto11.4
Teleop30.1
End5.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
30%Coral oddsEarned60%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
90%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsEarned