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Red220
31658.0
909459.8
32147.9
Blue136
437346.9
436126.2
171245.7
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18314550100200250300220136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+88Teleop
+90Endgame
+84Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
0Leave0
10Coral scored#5
51Coral points27
51Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +64
21Coral scored#16
75Coral points57
6Processor algae#1
8Net algae#4
36Processor points6
32Net points16
68Algae points22
143Total teleop79
Reef
9L4#9
10L3#5
5L2#4
7L1 · trough#3
45Game pieces#26
BargeRed +2
26Cage & park24
26Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +84
0Foul points6
220Total score136

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9094
#30
59.83.2
52.355.5
Auto14.1
Teleop37.7
End8.0
red by 12.9
4373
#18
46.90.8
43.943.1
Auto11.4
Teleop30.1
End5.5
Second
316
#20
58.03.2
51.855.0
Auto15.3
Teleop39.6
End3.0
red by 12.3
1712
#31
45.70.8
43.642.8
Auto7.1
Teleop31.3
End7.4
Third
321
#38
47.93.2
43.646.8
Auto15.9
Teleop26.7
End5.3
red by 21.7
4361
#54
26.20.8
28.427.6
Auto7.1
Teleop11.0
End8.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
33%Coral oddsEarned47%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned92%Barge oddsEarned