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Red229
36569.4
10364.5
125754.9
Blue208
253970.3
31658.0
192364.5
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions205205200210215220225229208

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+22
+11Teleop
+21Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousBlue +22
0Leave0
7Coral scored#12
36Coral points58
36Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +33
29Coral scored#20
103Coral points72
4Processor algae#5
10Net algae#8
24Processor points30
40Net points32
64Algae points62
167Total teleop134
Reef
11L4#10
11L3#11
8L2#6
6L1 · trough#5
50Game pieces#45
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +21
0Foul points0
229Total score208

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
365
#4
69.41.0
68.169.1
Auto13.7
Teleop47.2
End8.5
blue by 0.9
2539
#10
70.30.4
69.970.3
Auto16.2
Teleop45.2
End8.9
Second
103
#13
64.51.0
63.364.2
Auto8.7
Teleop50.4
End5.4
red by 0.1
64.50.4
64.164.5
Auto20.8
Teleop42.0
End1.6
Third
1257
#12
54.91.0
54.054.9
Auto11.2
Teleop39.3
End4.4
blue by 3.1
316
#20
58.00.4
57.658.0
Auto15.3
Teleop39.6
End3.0