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Red107
804453.2
45644.5
401311.7
Blue56
59017.0
74749.8
433629.3
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12758010015010756

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+35Teleop
+57Endgame
+51Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave3
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points3
23Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +18
9Coral scored#8
32Coral points28
1Processor algae#0
4Net algae#2
6Processor points0
16Net points8
22Algae points8
54Total teleop36
Reef
4L4#2
4L3#3
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
17Game pieces#11
BargeRed +22
24Cage & park2
24Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +51
6Foul points12
107Total score56

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.20.6
50.750.1
Auto14.7
Teleop29.8
End8.7
red by 23.9
29.31.6
29.728.1
Auto3.5
Teleop24.4
End1.4
Second
456
#2
44.50.9
42.041.1
Auto5.5
Teleop34.3
End4.7
red by 27.5
590
#20
17.01.6
15.714.2
Auto3.1
Teleop11.5
End2.5
Third
4013
#15
11.70.9
12.711.8
Auto3.9
Teleop4.9
End2.9
red by 2.0
7474
#32
9.81.7
8.97.2
Auto3.7
Teleop3.9
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned51%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
44%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
63%Barge oddsEarned51%Barge oddsMissed