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Red113
191232.2
142120.9
361624.5
Blue98
218326.4
541012.5
433629.3
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions93836010012011398

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+13Teleop
+15Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave6
1Coral scored#0
4Coral points0
13Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +6
16Coral scored#19
56Coral points68
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#2
18Processor points12
20Net points8
38Algae points20
94Total teleop88
Reef
7L4#5
4L3#8
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
25Game pieces#23
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +15
0Foul points0
113Total score98

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1912
#11
32.20.4
31.531.9
Auto6.8
Teleop22.2
End3.1
red by 2.9
29.30.4
28.929.3
Auto3.5
Teleop24.4
End1.4
Second
3616
#16
24.50.4
23.824.2
Auto3.9
Teleop18.4
End2.2
blue by 1.9
2183
#13
26.40.5
25.926.4
Auto5.4
Teleop18.1
End2.9
Third
1421
#36
20.90.4
20.220.7
Auto0.9
Teleop17.8
End2.2
red by 8.5
5410
#29
12.50.4
12.012.5
Auto3.3
Teleop8.3
End0.8