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Red103
463560.6
397059.6
592414.7
Blue179
97358.7
281358.1
594073.0
17%Model gave it83%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions156214050100200250300103179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+20
Teleop+34
Endgame+64
Fouls+76
AutonomousBlue +20
6Leave6
4Coral scored#8
21Coral points41
27Total auto47
TeleoperatedBlue +14
12Coral scored#14
42Coral points52
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
12Processor points12
16Net points20
28Algae points32
70Total teleop84
Reef
6L4#9
4L3#8
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +30
6Cage & park36
6Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +76
0Foul points12
103Total score179

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4635
#20
60.63.1
64.561.4
Auto13.6
Teleop37.8
End9.2
blue by 12.4
5940
#11
73.01.5
77.275.7
Auto19.0
Teleop45.1
End8.9
Second
3970
#43
59.63.1
68.465.2
Auto10.2
Teleop41.8
End7.6
red by 0.9
973
#6
58.71.5
56.254.7
Auto14.1
Teleop35.3
End9.3
Third
5924
#46
14.73.1
17.214.0
Auto4.9
Teleop9.2
End0.6
blue by 43.5
2813
#17
58.11.5
56.655.1
Auto9.7
Teleop38.6
End9.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsMissed98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
60%Coral oddsMissed81%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
92%Barge oddsMissed97%Barge oddsEarned