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Red172
281358.1
973B17.2
1678D64.1
Blue74
803340.5
5940B15.1
601739.7
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1381288010012016018017274

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+36Auto
+84Teleop
+96Endgame
+98Fouls
AutonomousRed +36
6Leave0
8Coral scored#2
39Coral points9
45Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +48
19Coral scored#12
69Coral points43
2Processor algae#1
7Net algae#3
12Processor points6
28Net points12
40Algae points18
109Total teleop61
Reef
7L4#3
10L3#5
4L2#3
6L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#18
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +98
2Foul points0
172Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.15.0
50.855.7
Auto17.0
Teleop42.6
End4.5
red by 23.7
8033
#47
40.52.9
47.244.3
Auto10.7
Teleop25.7
End4.1
Second
2813
#17
58.13.0
57.160.1
Auto9.7
Teleop38.6
End9.8
red by 18.4
6017
#32
39.72.9
41.338.4
Auto4.1
Teleop28.8
End6.9
Third
973B
#41
17.23.0
14.517.5
Auto5.8
Teleop9.1
End2.4
red by 2.1
15.14.9
26.621.7
Auto0.9
Teleop12.8
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned61%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
65%Coral oddsEarned27%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
61%Barge oddsMissed68%Barge oddsMissed