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Red268
254100.8
661940.9
1323117.0
Blue150
213565.2
207355.5
167154.6
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions277168100150200250300350268150

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+33Auto
+84Teleop
+118Endgame
+118Fouls
AutonomousRed +33
6Leave3
13Coral scored#7
64Coral points34
70Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +51
31Coral scored#26
110Coral points93
4Processor algae#1
7Net algae#3
24Processor points6
28Net points12
52Algae points18
162Total teleop111
Reef
17L4#15
13L3#8
9L2#5
5L1 · trough#5
55Game pieces#37
BargeRed +34
36Cage & park2
36Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +118
0Foul points0
268Total score150

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
117.00.3
115.7116.0
Auto28.3
Teleop76.6
End12.1
red by 51.8
65.20.4
63.463.0
Auto19.3
Teleop42.9
End2.9
Second
254
#2
100.80.3
99.599.7
Auto27.4
Teleop63.8
End9.6
red by 45.3
2073
#25
55.50.4
53.753.2
Auto12.4
Teleop35.8
End7.3
Third
6619
#31
40.90.3
39.639.9
Auto5.3
Teleop29.1
End6.5
blue by 13.7
1671
#15
54.60.4
52.852.4
Auto13.9
Teleop36.1
End4.7