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Red101
478220.3
440056.2
710230.7
Blue80
810520.4
588717.5
928034.7
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12158010015010180

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+23Teleop
+15Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave6
7Coral scored#1
33Coral points6
33Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +2
10Coral scored#10
36Coral points36
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
12Processor points6
8Net points12
20Algae points18
56Total teleop54
Reef
5L4#5
5L3#3
4L2#1
3L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +21
6Foul points0
101Total score80

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.20.6
48.948.3
Auto16.4
Teleop34.5
End5.3
red by 21.5
34.71.7
25.927.6
Auto4.5
Teleop27.5
End2.7
Second
7102
#16
30.70.6
27.226.6
Auto4.1
Teleop25.2
End1.5
red by 10.3
8105
#15
20.41.7
13.114.9
Auto5.0
Teleop10.9
End4.5
Third
4782
#27
20.31.0
19.118.1
Auto5.5
Teleop11.3
End3.5
red by 2.8
17.51.0
13.614.7
Auto3.9
Teleop11.6
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
67%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed51%Barge oddsEarned