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Red157
440056.2
478220.3
347868.5
Blue53
435530.5
473517.5
335424.6
100%Model gave it0%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions159705010020015753

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+76Teleop
+86Endgame
+104Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
9Leave0
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points12
30Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +58
15Coral scored#6
55Coral points23
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#1
12Processor points6
24Net points4
36Algae points10
91Total teleop33
Reef
9L4#3
6L3#2
3L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
27Game pieces#10
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +104
20Foul points2
157Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.50.0
66.266.2
Auto13.4
Teleop45.4
End9.7
red by 37.9
4355
#14
30.50.5
31.030.5
Auto5.5
Teleop21.7
End3.3
Second
56.20.0
53.953.9
Auto16.4
Teleop34.5
End5.3
red by 31.6
3354
#23
24.60.5
25.024.5
Auto4.6
Teleop18.8
End1.2
Third
4782
#27
20.30.0
18.018.0
Auto5.5
Teleop11.3
End3.5
red by 2.8
4735
#11
17.50.5
18.017.5
Auto2.1
Teleop11.9
End3.5