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Red126
463545.1
930120.6
440341.8
Blue90
601729.5
473118.4
634834.8
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13310140608012014016018012690

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+15Auto
+22Teleop
+30Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousRed +15
6Leave6
4Coral scored#1
18Coral points3
24Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +7
13Coral scored#13
48Coral points47
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
72Total teleop65
Reef
5L4#5
6L3#4
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
22Game pieces#18
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +36
6Foul points0
126Total score90

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.10.0
44.644.6
Auto9.2
Teleop28.6
End7.3
red by 10.2
34.80.3
35.335.0
Auto4.4
Teleop29.1
End1.4
Second
41.80.0
41.341.3
Auto4.3
Teleop29.8
End7.7
red by 12.3
6017
#14
29.50.2
29.929.6
Auto3.5
Teleop22.0
End3.9
Third
9301
#24
20.60.0
20.120.2
Auto2.8
Teleop12.3
End5.5
red by 2.3
4731
#34
18.40.3
18.818.5
Auto3.1
Teleop14.0
End1.2