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Red149
463545.1
930120.6
440341.8
Blue92
601729.5
473118.4
634834.8
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13310040608012014016018014992

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
+11Teleop
+43Endgame
+57Fouls
AutonomousRed +2
0Leave9
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points6
17Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +9
13Coral scored#16
46Coral points59
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#2
12Processor points6
24Net points8
36Algae points14
82Total teleop73
Reef
5L4#6
6L3#5
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#20
BargeRed +32
36Cage & park4
36Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +57
14Foul points0
149Total score92

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.10.5
44.645.1
Auto9.2
Teleop28.6
End7.3
red by 10.2
34.80.2
35.034.8
Auto4.4
Teleop29.1
End1.4
Second
41.80.5
41.341.8
Auto4.3
Teleop29.8
End7.7
red by 12.3
6017
#14
29.50.2
29.629.5
Auto3.5
Teleop22.0
End3.9
Third
9301
#24
20.60.5
20.220.6
Auto2.8
Teleop12.3
End5.5
red by 2.3
4731
#34
18.40.2
18.518.4
Auto3.1
Teleop14.0
End1.2