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Red65
874111.5
315832.9
43719.5
Blue53
352222.0
66065.2
930120.6
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6157203040507080901006553

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+22Teleop
+12Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
9Leave3
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
9Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +16
10Coral scored#6
36Coral points22
0Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
0Processor points6
16Net points8
16Algae points14
52Total teleop36
Reef
4L4#2
3L3#2
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#9
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
0Foul points0
65Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3158
#22
32.91.2
25.626.8
Auto4.4
Teleop27.7
End0.9
red by 11.0
3522
#28
22.00.2
16.816.6
Auto2.5
Teleop18.5
End1.0
Second
8741
#32
11.51.2
11.412.6
Auto2.5
Teleop6.3
End2.6
blue by 9.2
9301
#24
20.60.2
20.420.2
Auto2.8
Teleop12.3
End5.5
Third
4371
#38
9.51.2
14.215.4
Auto2.6
Teleop6.4
End0.5
red by 4.3
6606
#43
5.20.2
11.311.1
Auto1.0
Teleop2.5
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
18%Auto oddsMissed22%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed26%Barge oddsEarned