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Red45
401012.6
463545.1
Blue36
66527.9
754619.8
228320.3
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8258020401001201404536

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+8Auto
+7Teleop
+9Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousRed +8
3Leave3
2Coral scored#1
11Coral points3
14Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +1
4Coral scored#5
13Coral points18
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
0Processor points0
8Net points4
8Algae points4
21Total teleop22
Reef
2L4#3
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#7
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
6Foul points6
45Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.13.4
42.939.6
Auto9.2
Teleop28.6
End7.3
red by 24.7
2283
#16
20.32.4
18.516.2
Auto4.1
Teleop14.9
End1.3
Second
4010
#12
12.63.4
15.512.1
Auto4.3
Teleop7.2
End1.0
blue by 7.2
7546
#11
19.82.4
22.420.1
Auto2.5
Teleop15.3
End2.0
Third
8.83.4
10.97.5
Auto2.3
Teleop5.3
End1.2
red by 1.0
6652
#40
7.92.4
10.27.9
Auto0.8
Teleop6.5
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
51%Auto oddsEarned27%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
42%Barge oddsMissed18%Barge oddsMissed