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Red40
754619.8
601729.5
Blue39
874111.5
37948.0
352621.0
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions625002040801001204039

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+3Teleop
+7Endgame
+1Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave6
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
3Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +6
5Coral scored#4
19Coral points13
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
29Total teleop23
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#6
BargeRed +4
8Cage & park4
8Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +1
0Foul points6
40Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6017
#14
29.51.2
23.422.2
Auto3.5
Teleop22.0
End3.9
red by 8.4
21.01.0
19.418.4
Auto4.0
Teleop15.3
End1.7
Second
7546
#11
19.81.2
20.118.8
Auto2.5
Teleop15.3
End2.0
red by 8.4
8741
#32
11.51.0
10.99.9
Auto2.5
Teleop6.3
End2.6
Third
8.81.2
7.56.3
Auto2.3
Teleop5.3
End1.2
red by 0.8
3794
#39
8.01.0
12.011.0
Auto2.4
Teleop4.0
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
30%Auto oddsMissed14%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsMissed