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Red105
90536.5
463545.1
610622.4
Blue10
66527.9
1052910.3
874111.5
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8148010015020025010510

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+43Teleop
+51Endgame
+95Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave0
2Coral scored#0
8Coral points0
14Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +29
8Coral scored#1
29Coral points4
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
33Total teleop4
Reef
4L4#1
3L3#0
2L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
11Game pieces#1
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +95
44Foul points0
105Total score10

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.11.2
42.641.4
Auto9.2
Teleop28.6
End7.3
red by 33.6
8741
#32
11.54.3
15.811.4
Auto2.5
Teleop6.3
End2.6
Second
22.41.2
15.714.5
Auto3.5
Teleop17.9
End1.0
red by 12.1
10.34.3
12.68.2
Auto1.3
Teleop7.3
End1.6
Third
9053
#27
6.51.2
10.39.1
Auto2.7
Teleop2.7
End1.1
blue by 1.4
6652
#40
7.94.3
18.013.7
Auto0.8
Teleop6.5
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
50%Auto oddsEarned26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
41%Barge oddsEarned30%Barge oddsMissed