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Red102
460320.8
1056517.4
670235.0
Blue105
531221.3
552625.7
754627.4
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions89844060100120140102105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
Teleop+7
Endgame+9
Fouls+3
AutonomousRed +1
6Leave9
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points3
13Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +8
16Coral scored#14
59Coral points49
2Processor algae#3
2Net algae#5
12Processor points18
8Net points20
20Algae points38
79Total teleop87
Reef
6L4#5
5L3#4
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Penalties & totalBlue +3
6Foul points0
102Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.00.0
34.935.0
Auto4.7
Teleop28.2
End2.1
red by 7.6
7546
#14
27.40.3
27.027.3
Auto2.7
Teleop22.7
End2.0
Second
4603
#10
20.80.0
20.820.8
Auto4.7
Teleop13.0
End3.1
blue by 4.9
25.70.4
25.325.6
Auto5.4
Teleop17.9
End2.4
Third
17.40.1
17.417.4
Auto3.3
Teleop10.8
End3.3
blue by 3.8
5312
#27
21.30.4
20.821.2
Auto2.7
Teleop15.4
End3.2