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Red53
531221.3
552625.7
754627.4
Blue92
951329.7
826619.2
477521.8
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions85740501001502005392

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+11
Endgame+31
Fouls+39
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave3
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points9
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +8
8Coral scored#8
30Coral points30
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
6Processor points6
4Net points12
10Algae points18
40Total teleop48
Reef
4L4#2
3L3#3
2L2#3
0L1 · trough#2
11Game pieces#14
BargeBlue +20
4Cage & park24
4Total endgame24
Penalties & totalBlue +39
0Foul points8
53Total score92

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7546
#14
27.40.7
27.426.7
Auto2.7
Teleop22.7
End2.0
blue by 2.3
29.70.2
27.727.9
Auto5.0
Teleop18.4
End6.3
Second
25.70.9
25.724.8
Auto5.4
Teleop17.9
End2.4
red by 3.9
4775
#21
21.80.2
19.819.9
Auto3.2
Teleop17.6
End1.0
Third
5312
#27
21.30.9
21.220.3
Auto2.7
Teleop15.4
End3.2
red by 2.1
8266
#20
19.20.2
16.716.9
Auto3.3
Teleop10.6
End5.3