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Qual 362025 FNC District UNC Asheville Event
Red96
319621.4
572733.3
842937.2
Blue70
900830.5
350629.9
493514.3
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1058440601201401601809670

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+26Teleop
+26Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
6Leave0
5Coral scored#3
24Coral points13
30Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +9
12Coral scored#9
42Coral points31
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#2
6Processor points12
12Net points8
18Algae points20
60Total teleop51
Reef
6L4#5
6L3#2
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#16
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
2Foul points2
96Total score70

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8429
#2
37.20.2
37.6→37.8
Auto10.5
Teleop25.0
End1.7
red by 6.8
9008
#14
30.50.7
26.9→26.2
Auto3.7
Teleop24.2
End2.6
Second
5727
#12
33.30.3
32.8→33.1
Auto8.6
Teleop22.6
End2.1
red by 3.5
3506
#13
29.90.7
31.7→31.0
Auto4.6
Teleop21.0
End4.3
Third
3196
#17
21.40.3
20.4→20.7
Auto4.1
Teleop15.7
End1.6
red by 7.1
4935
#16
14.30.7
16.9→16.2
Auto3.0
Teleop9.8
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
78%Auto oddsEarned51%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed46%Barge oddsMissed