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Red69
842937.2
1024811.3
1058317.8
Blue51
960514.1
663926.9
572733.3
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions78830501001502006951

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+8Teleop
+8Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave9
1Coral scored#0
7Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +1
8Coral scored#8
29Coral points28
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
39Total teleop38
Reef
2L4#3
3L3#2
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
11Game pieces#10
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
10Foul points0
69Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.20.8
37.837.0
Auto10.5
Teleop25.0
End1.7
red by 3.9
5727
#12
33.31.9
33.131.2
Auto8.6
Teleop22.6
End2.1
Second
17.81.0
18.217.2
Auto3.7
Teleop11.0
End3.1
blue by 9.1
26.91.6
26.525.0
Auto4.5
Teleop20.0
End2.4
Third
11.31.0
15.314.3
Auto1.8
Teleop9.4
End0.1
blue by 2.9
9605
#21
14.11.6
14.613.1
Auto1.8
Teleop11.4
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed21%Barge oddsMissed