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Red34
650235.9
663919.4
80908.6
Blue60
264021.5
789028.7
600424.4
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions675802040801003460

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+22
Endgame+18
Fouls+26
Autonomouslevel
9Leave9
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +22
5Coral scored#9
17Coral points31
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#3
0Processor points0
4Net points12
4Algae points12
21Total teleop43
Reef
2L4#3
1L3#2
1L2#3
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#12
BargeRed +4
4Cage & park0
4Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +26
0Foul points8
34Total score60

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6502
#17
35.92.9
25.923.0
Auto8.3
Teleop25.7
End1.9
red by 7.1
7890
#20
28.70.9
23.222.3
Auto7.4
Teleop20.6
End0.7
Second
6639
#18
19.42.9
21.018.1
Auto4.0
Teleop12.8
End2.5
blue by 5.0
6004
#14
24.40.9
18.817.8
Auto4.6
Teleop18.1
End1.7
Third
8090
#25
8.62.9
13.210.3
Auto2.3
Teleop4.1
End2.2
blue by 12.9
2640
#10
21.50.9
12.311.4
Auto2.4
Teleop16.5
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
25%Auto oddsMissed41%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed20%Barge oddsMissed