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Red50
486123.3
624214.0
976211.1
Blue41
90058.4
929814.4
875717.0
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions48340102030406070805041

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+5Teleop
+13Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave0
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +2
6Coral scored#6
22Coral points20
1Processor algae#1
0Net algae#0
6Processor points6
0Net points0
6Algae points6
28Total teleop26
Reef
3L4#2
2L3#2
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#8
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
2Foul points6
50Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4861
#16
23.30.6
15.515.0
Auto4.7
Teleop11.3
End7.3
red by 6.3
8757
#23
17.01.3
10.99.7
Auto2.4
Teleop11.9
End2.7
Second
6242
#22
14.00.6
14.614.1
Auto0.8
Teleop9.1
End4.1
blue by 0.5
9298
#29
14.41.3
9.38.1
Auto4.6
Teleop8.8
End1.0
Third
11.10.6
10.810.3
Auto5.6
Teleop4.3
End1.1
red by 2.7
9005
#28
8.41.3
11.810.6
Auto1.5
Teleop4.5
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
20%Auto oddsMissed13%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
42%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsEarned