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Red102
976211.1
872732.7
875717.0
Blue38
650235.9
486123.3
600424.4
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions496602040608010010238

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+26Teleop
+26Endgame
+64Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
9Leave0
2Coral scored#2
9Coral points9
18Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +17
7Coral scored#5
26Coral points19
2Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
12Processor points6
4Net points0
16Algae points6
42Total teleop25
Reef
3L4#1
2L3#3
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
12Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +64
38Foul points0
102Total score38

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8727
#12
32.71.5
21.823.3
Auto6.7
Teleop24.0
End2.0
blue by 3.2
6502
#17
35.92.0
23.021.0
Auto8.3
Teleop25.7
End1.9
Second
8757
#23
17.01.5
9.711.2
Auto2.4
Teleop11.9
End2.7
blue by 7.3
6004
#14
24.42.0
17.815.9
Auto4.6
Teleop18.1
End1.7
Third
11.11.5
10.311.7
Auto5.6
Teleop4.3
End1.1
blue by 12.2
4861
#16
23.32.0
15.013.0
Auto4.7
Teleop11.3
End7.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
19%Auto oddsEarned18%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsMissed39%Barge oddsMissed