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Red147
264027.4
479558.8
929822.1
Blue143
90068.4
453450.1
482827.4
11%Model gave it89%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9714150200147143

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
Teleop+18
Endgame+2
+4Fouls
AutonomousBlue +17
3Leave6
3Coral scored#6
17Coral points31
20Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +1
19Coral scored#19
69Coral points70
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#6
12Processor points12
24Net points24
36Algae points36
105Total teleop106
Reef
5L4#11
7L3#5
7L2#5
3L1 · trough#4
30Game pieces#33
BargeRed +16
16Cage & park0
16Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
6Foul points0
147Total score143

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4795
#26
58.82.8
55.157.9
Auto12.3
Teleop45.7
End0.8
blue by 9.6
900
#3
68.40.6
62.362.9
Auto16.5
Teleop50.0
End1.9
Second
2640
#34
27.42.8
26.929.7
Auto3.0
Teleop22.1
End2.3
blue by 22.7
4534
#31
50.10.6
42.443.0
Auto13.5
Teleop34.9
End1.6
Third
9298
#28
22.12.8
16.819.7
Auto4.8
Teleop15.0
End2.3
blue by 5.3
4828
#21
27.40.6
29.830.3
Auto5.7
Teleop20.6
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsMissed98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
11%Barge oddsEarned27%Barge oddsMissed