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Qual 632025 FIRST North Carolina State Championship
Red135
903257.9
482921.2
663931.3
Blue143
874631.8
373740.5
650047.7
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1181146080100140160180135143

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+16Teleop
+4Endgame
Fouls+8
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave6
4Coral scored#5
20Coral points24
23Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +23
19Coral scored#14
68Coral points49
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
12Processor points12
20Net points16
32Algae points28
100Total teleop77
Reef
6L4#8
8L3#5
4L2#4
5L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +12
12Cage & park24
12Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +8
0Foul points12
135Total score143

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9032
#2
57.91.5
52.6→54.1
Auto13.8
Teleop41.0
End3.2
red by 10.2
6500
#18
47.71.4
42.2→43.6
Auto9.9
Teleop31.0
End6.8
Second
6639
#29
31.31.5
37.2→38.7
Auto4.6
Teleop25.7
End1.0
blue by 9.3
3737
#7
40.51.4
38.9→40.2
Auto6.1
Teleop24.3
End10.1
Third
4829
#36
21.21.5
22.7→24.2
Auto2.7
Teleop16.4
End2.1
blue by 10.6
8746
#6
31.81.4
29.3→30.6
Auto5.8
Teleop25.4
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed88%Barge oddsEarned