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Red157
842944.6
456139.8
479558.8
Blue165
153354.6
650251.1
453450.1
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15016150100200250157165

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+12Teleop
0Endgame0
Fouls+8
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave9
8Coral scored#6
38Coral points28
41Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +8
21Coral scored#21
76Coral points76
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
12Processor points12
24Net points16
36Algae points28
112Total teleop104
Reef
13L4#11
5L3#5
6L2#8
5L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +8
0Foul points8
157Total score165

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4795
#26
58.80.3
58.558.8
Auto12.3
Teleop45.7
End0.8
red by 4.2
1533
#10
54.60.1
53.954.0
Auto12.3
Teleop33.9
End8.4
Second
44.60.3
44.244.6
Auto15.6
Teleop27.5
End1.4
blue by 6.5
6502
#22
51.10.1
50.450.5
Auto8.3
Teleop41.9
End0.9
Third
4561
#11
39.80.3
39.539.8
Auto8.1
Teleop22.9
End8.8
blue by 10.2
4534
#31
50.10.1
49.349.4
Auto13.5
Teleop34.9
End1.6