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Red195
153354.6
650251.1
453450.1
Blue184
872736.9
373740.5
650047.7
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15712350100200195184

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+21Teleop
+11Endgame
+11Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave9
6Coral scored#6
31Coral points28
37Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +21
19Coral scored#24
68Coral points87
5Processor algae#3
11Net algae#4
30Processor points18
44Net points16
74Algae points34
142Total teleop121
Reef
6L4#10
8L3#10
6L2#5
5L1 · trough#5
41Game pieces#37
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points0
195Total score184

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1533
#10
54.61.1
51.452.5
Auto12.3
Teleop33.9
End8.4
red by 6.9
6500
#18
47.71.4
46.347.7
Auto9.9
Teleop31.0
End6.8
Second
6502
#22
51.11.1
47.949.0
Auto8.3
Teleop41.9
End0.9
red by 10.6
40.51.4
39.140.5
Auto6.1
Teleop24.3
End10.1
Third
4534
#31
50.11.1
46.948.0
Auto13.5
Teleop34.9
End1.6
red by 13.2
8727
#23
36.91.4
35.536.9
Auto8.9
Teleop26.4
End1.5