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Red114
453440.5
205941.0
482924.2
Blue11
76716.0
820519.1
1035411.9
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9345015020011411

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+93Teleop
+97Endgame
+103Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
6Leave3
3Coral scored#0
17Coral points0
23Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +73
15Coral scored#0
55Coral points0
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
6Processor points0
12Net points0
18Algae points0
73Total teleop0
Reef
7L4#0
5L3#0
2L2#0
4L1 · trough#0
22Game pieces#0
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +103
12Foul points6
114Total score11

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2059
#17
41.01.6
31.933.5
Auto8.2
Teleop30.4
End2.4
red by 21.9
8205
#27
19.14.6
19.114.5
Auto4.3
Teleop13.7
End1.1
Second
40.52.4
25.027.4
Auto10.7
Teleop26.9
End3.0
red by 28.6
11.91.4
11.913.2
Auto2.5
Teleop6.7
End2.7
Third
4829
#16
24.21.4
23.725.1
Auto4.6
Teleop18.0
End1.7
red by 18.2
7671
#29
6.02.7
9.26.5
Auto1.8
Teleop3.0
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsEarned37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsMissed