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Red109
874622.9
453440.5
516021.7
Blue80
482924.2
830415.7
600423.8
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions867020406010012014016010980

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+33Teleop
+29Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave0
5Coral scored#3
23Coral points16
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +26
18Coral scored#13
64Coral points46
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
6Processor points6
16Net points8
22Algae points14
86Total teleop60
Reef
9L4#5
8L3#5
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
28Game pieces#19
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +29
0Foul points0
109Total score80

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.52.0
36.738.6
Auto10.7
Teleop26.9
End3.0
red by 16.3
4829
#16
24.20.8
25.426.2
Auto4.6
Teleop18.0
End1.7
Second
8746
#11
22.91.6
23.324.9
Auto3.0
Teleop18.7
End1.2
blue by 0.8
6004
#10
23.80.8
23.524.2
Auto5.1
Teleop17.2
End1.5
Third
5160
#22
21.71.6
19.821.4
Auto4.5
Teleop17.4
End-0.2
red by 6.0
8304
#25
15.70.8
13.914.7
Auto4.7
Teleop10.6
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
15%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsMissed