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Red100
58739.2
453436.2
872729.9
Blue20
998215.3
51904.8
572737.3
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11952010015020025010020

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+64Teleop
+78Endgame
+80Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
9Leave3
6Coral scored#1
28Coral points3
37Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +33
9Coral scored#2
31Coral points8
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
41Total teleop8
Reef
6L4#1
3L3#1
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#0
17Game pieces#3
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +80
6Foul points4
100Total score20

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
587
#1
39.20.2
38.137.9
Auto9.6
Teleop25.4
End4.1
red by 1.9
37.31.0
37.937.0
Auto5.7
Teleop29.6
End2.1
Second
4534
#12
36.20.2
35.134.9
Auto9.6
Teleop24.7
End2.0
red by 20.9
15.31.6
16.314.7
Auto3.7
Teleop7.9
End3.5
Third
29.90.2
28.828.6
Auto8.8
Teleop19.8
End1.2
red by 25.0
5190
#23
4.81.0
5.44.5
Auto1.9
Teleop1.5
End1.4