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Red111
153342.3
126232.6
900511.2
Blue78
350619.6
688819.3
915024.7
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8853015020025030035011178

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+47Teleop
+33Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
0Leave9
5Coral scored#0
27Coral points0
27Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +29
16Coral scored#11
58Coral points39
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
82Total teleop53
Reef
11L4#3
4L3#3
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#14
BargeBlue +14
2Cage & park16
2Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +33
0Foul points0
111Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.30.7
38.739.4
Auto10.5
Teleop26.1
End5.7
red by 17.6
24.70.5
21.622.1
Auto3.4
Teleop20.5
End0.7
Second
32.60.7
29.129.8
Auto3.5
Teleop28.3
End0.7
red by 13.0
19.60.5
16.617.0
Auto2.9
Teleop14.5
End2.2
Third
9005
#14
11.20.7
7.68.3
Auto3.2
Teleop6.8
End1.2
blue by 8.2
6888
#22
19.30.5
16.316.7
Auto2.0
Teleop13.2
End4.2