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Red41
519012.9
1007720.2
9973-2.2
Blue28
998210.0
663915.0
9976-2.1
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6543020801001201404128

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+13Teleop
+1Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave6
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +10
2Coral scored#1
8Coral points2
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
12Total teleop2
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#0
1L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
4Game pieces#1
BargeBlue +12
2Cage & park14
2Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
18Foul points6
41Total score28

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.21.7
26.925.1
Auto5.7
Teleop13.2
End1.1
red by 5.2
15.00.9
25.824.8
Auto2.7
Teleop11.3
End0.8
Second
12.91.7
18.216.4
Auto3.2
Teleop7.7
End1.8
red by 2.9
10.01.5
3.21.6
Auto1.8
Teleop6.0
End2.1
Third
9973
#11Sur
-2.22.9
4.11.2
Auto0.5
Teleop-1.7
End-0.6
blue by 0.1
9976
#13Sur
-2.11.5
7.05.5
Auto-0.4
Teleop-1.5
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
34%Auto oddsEarned29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsEarned24%Barge oddsEarned