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Red166
550758.0
641857.2
220436.7
Blue119
545832.0
213557.3
876837.6
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions158133050100200250300166119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+32Auto
+35Teleop
+47Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousRed +32
9Leave6
10Coral scored#4
49Coral points20
58Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +3
16Coral scored#16
58Coral points57
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
18Processor points12
16Net points20
34Algae points32
92Total teleop89
Reef
11L4#7
9L3#6
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#27
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +47
2Foul points2
166Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.00.4
56.857.1
Auto20.3
Teleop28.8
End8.9
red by 0.7
57.30.2
57.657.3
Auto16.6
Teleop37.7
End3.1
Second
57.20.4
56.056.3
Auto18.1
Teleop33.2
End5.9
red by 19.6
8768
#13
37.60.2
37.837.6
Auto4.8
Teleop30.7
End2.1
Third
2204
#24
36.70.4
35.535.8
Auto8.8
Teleop25.9
End2.1
red by 4.7
5458
#21
32.00.2
32.232.0
Auto7.1
Teleop23.0
End1.9