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Red113
1030221.6
205942.9
904216.1
Blue32
903234.3
820514.4
87579.7
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7678406010012011332

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+37Teleop
+47Endgame
+81Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave0
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +34
9Coral scored#3
34Coral points10
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
48Total teleop14
Reef
3L4#1
2L3#1
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
12Game pieces#5
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +81
40Foul points6
113Total score32

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.90.1
38.438.6
Auto8.0
Teleop28.4
End6.6
red by 8.6
9032
#17
34.33.0
31.428.4
Auto8.0
Teleop25.4
End0.9
Second
21.60.1
14.814.9
Auto4.3
Teleop15.5
End1.9
red by 7.2
8205
#29
14.43.0
17.614.6
Auto3.5
Teleop10.5
End0.4
Third
9042
#20
16.10.1
11.611.7
Auto3.9
Teleop10.3
End1.8
red by 6.4
8757
#30
9.73.0
16.813.8
Auto2.4
Teleop5.0
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsMissed59%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
8%Barge oddsEarned10%Barge oddsMissed