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Red117
903234.3
334914.6
1007725.7
Blue49
551810.4
830421.7
1026015.9
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8061010015020025011749

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+62Teleop
+64Endgame
+68Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave3
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points6
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +48
15Coral scored#7
54Coral points26
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
18Processor points6
12Net points4
30Algae points10
84Total teleop36
Reef
6L4#3
5L3#2
5L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
24Game pieces#10
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +68
4Foul points0
117Total score49

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9032
#17
34.32.3
32.434.7
Auto8.0
Teleop25.4
End0.9
red by 12.6
8304
#15
21.71.2
22.921.7
Auto5.4
Teleop15.0
End1.3
Second
25.72.3
20.322.6
Auto6.0
Teleop17.2
End2.4
red by 9.8
15.91.2
18.717.5
Auto5.6
Teleop8.7
End1.6
Third
3349
#14
14.62.3
10.512.9
Auto3.0
Teleop10.0
End1.6
red by 4.2
5518
#27
10.41.2
7.46.2
Auto2.4
Teleop6.7
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsMissed64%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsMissed