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Red103
499127.6
965310.3
261452.3
Blue54
947517.9
255916.8
919418.8
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1276305010015020025010354

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+47Teleop
+49Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
9Leave6
4Coral scored#0
21Coral points0
30Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +23
14Coral scored#9
51Coral points32
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
69Total teleop46
Reef
5L4#3
7L3#3
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#12
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
0Foul points0
103Total score54

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.30.2
52.252.0
Auto12.1
Teleop34.2
End6.1
red by 33.5
9194
#21
18.80.6
21.520.9
Auto3.8
Teleop12.5
End2.5
Second
27.60.2
37.337.1
Auto7.5
Teleop20.3
End-0.2
red by 9.7
9475
#20
17.90.8
19.518.7
Auto2.9
Teleop13.7
End1.3
Third
9653
#18
10.30.2
10.610.4
Auto2.6
Teleop6.4
End1.3
blue by 6.6
2559
#10
16.80.6
16.415.8
Auto4.5
Teleop7.9
End4.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned71%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
62%Barge oddsMissed19%Barge oddsMissed